Eurovision 2018 Predictions: Before Rehearsals

Predictions are always hard because even after watching rehearsals people always predict last placers to qualify. Still, the chances become much clearer if a performance is especially effective, or if they are disastrous. A magical staging can elevate a mediocre song, but poor performance or failed gimmick is much more likely to kill a great song. Here are my predictions for qualifiers before the rehearsals with the likeliness they are to change.

Semifinal 1

Definite unless there is an unlikely disaster: Israel, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Azerbaijan, Armenia

(Azerbaijan always squeaks through no matter what. I’m not sold on Israel live from the preview parties but she has huge appeal to a female audience).

Definite unless there is a possible disaster: Finland, Austria, Greece

(Fan favorite dance songs like Finland squeak through unless they are embarrassing, of which this has a high risk)

If amazing: Belgium, Czech Republic, Croatia, Estonia, Lithuania, Albania
(Estonia is gimmicky but gimmicky things do often go through. Lithuania also seems like it could be a qualifier but it could be too delicate to stick.)

Gonna take a miracle: FYR Macedonia, Switzerland, Ireland

No chance: Iceland, Belarus

My predicted qualifiers are all of the top two tiers, plus Belgium and the Czech Republic. Axel Hirsoux sacrificed his dear mother to secure Belgium’s good results and the endurance of that sacrifice will depend on Sennek’s vocal performance. If Finland has embarrassing props or costumes, then replace them with Croatia.



Semifinal 2
Definite unless there is an unlikely disaster: Ukraine, Sweden, Russia, Moldova, Hungary, Norway, Romania

(I believe Russia will pull through on the performance. Romania have qualified with worse. Norway will be such a crowd-pleaser)

In if sounding good: Poland, Australia

In if amazing:Denmark, Netherlands, Montenegro

Gonna take a miracle: Georgia, Malta, Latvia, Slovenia

No chance: San Marino, Serbia

My predicted qualifiers are all of the top two tiers plus Montenegro. Balkan ballads are still crowd-pleasers and I’m not sure how much Denmark or Montenegro will connect with the audience unless they have exceptional staging.

Eurovision 2018 Song Ranking Part 7

10. Austria
Cesar Sampson - “Nobody But You”
As far as Austrian entries with gospel influences go, this blows “The Secret is Love” out of the water. The backing choir and handclap percussion start up adding depth in the first chorus and intensifies until it reaches the dizzying heights of the bridge and the final chorus that takes everyone to church. The singer’s yearning is at a deep spiritual level that fills the room. Speaking of spiritual love, Symphonix International is clearly the new Eurovision force to be reckoned with since 2016. Even when they haven’t done well, they’ve brought quality songs that only suffered because of other variables like the performer or staging. If they get the backing vocal mix right live there’s a lot of potential. The only downside is the start is a little slow (but nowhere near as slow as “The Secret is Love” is the ending is a bit abrupt.

9. Italy
Ermal Meta & Fabrizio Moro - “Non mi avete fatto niente”
There was a turning point when it was longer acceptable to write a "peace" song in Eurovision and instead it becomes an "antiwar" song. Perhaps the dual turning point is "What If" and "1944", with the actual change happening in 2015 with the cynical montage to the former. Europe was coming off of higher tensions at the beginning of the contest and was still divided by the Iron Curtain in the peak "peace song" years, and the Yugoslav wars in 1990's had some songs about their pain but not generically antiwar, but maybe it changes when a country has to compete alongside their invader (see “Peace Will Come” and the immediate context). “NMAFN” on the other hand doesn't know if it is an anti-terrorism or anti-war song. The lyrics say "you didn't do anything to me" and well...yeah, they didn't. They refer to multiple terrorism incidents in and out of Europe, none of which were in Italy. Is the song about the devastation of war, or holding your head high and living despite being affected by terrorism? The political implications of each is different, and they go hand in hand. It seems to be effective if you're talking about your (country's) specific pain, or a general comment on the world. This is not to say you only have to write about your own experience (obviously see France this year) but the message seems unclear. I often wonder lately how it would pan out if France and Italy swapped song subjects this year. As for the music, it’s catchy pop/rock in a Muse/Coldplay way, but much more tolerable than either. It's super catchy enough to melt away a good number of the concerns. I love gritty Italian voices like Fabrizio, and Ermal provides a gentler counterpoint. Regardless of the implications above, the lyrics are euphonic, with poignant percussive lines like "non esiste bomba pacifista”.

8. Ukraine
Melovin - “Under the Ladder”
I'm not really sure what this song means, something along the lines of a teen's dark poetry ("Tangle of my innocence inside/Faith’s bout to be severed")? If that's so, the singer is spot on. Melovin has a dark, commanding voice and can sing anyone's teen poetry anytime. He is the alternative teen idol this contest needs, and probably the biggest one this year. Unlike last year's idol Kristian Kostov, Melovin has a maturity and intensity to his voice and performance that goes beyond his 20 years. There's nothing at all delicate about this. The music it's set to goes perfectly too, the poppier side of piano-driven rock, with big dramatic choruses.

7. Azerbaijan
Aisel - “X My Heart”
My feelings about lyrics in Eurovision are irrational. I like creative or meaningful lyrics in English and Romance languages. I’m indifferent to lyrics in other languages unless they Google Translate to either something really heartfelt in just the right way or something really irritating or offensive. There are a lot of English lyrics that are generic and I don’t think about them much. Like many people, I am sensitive to when lyrics have bizarre grammar or word choices that native speakers wouldn’t use. But in this case, like their song last year, I don’t mind the lyrics. “Luna moon me up?” Sure! Listening with the assumption that the words were chosen for the way they sound rather than their meaning erases this problem. I’ll take the creativity of “stronger than cannonballs” any day over rhyming fire and desire. On the musical side, “X My Heart” is a big soulless overproduced upbeat pop song, which is why it’s such a guilty pleasure. It seems silly to say this, but Azerbaijan’s song is underrated this year. The chorus is instantly catchy, despite the (lack of) meaning. Aisel’s voice is clear and smooth, with shades of Lady Gaga. The whole package is an only-in-Eurovision confection that could easily be tweaked for the outside world.

6. Cyprus
Eleni Foureira - “Fuego”
Cyprus has had some really unremarkable entries in the past couple years. Not since “La La Love” have they had a great song (I almost forgot “An Me Thimase” when recounting their entries). This is kind of similar to “La La Love” in that it's a dance pop song, although this is way sexier. Where Ivi was teeny pop, Eleni brings mature eros. At once it's both Eurovisiony - not too far a departure from “LLL” or any of the 'ethno'-uptempo pop from the past 10-15 years – and contemporary – that kind of sound is back in style in the outside world and it has a tropical beat. “Fuego” conjures up a hot night alternately spent dancing and laying breathless in awe.

Eurovision 2018 Song Ranking Part 6

15. Armenia
Sevak Khanagyan – "Qami"
There’s something so soothing about this ballad. The tinkling windchimes in the second chorus are a subtle gesture that adds to the “windy” feel. The final chorus is when things really start getting good, with powerful backing vocals taking it all home.

14. FYR Macedonia
Eye Cue - “Lost and Found”
Some other entries in recent years have been multiple distinct songs in one, but none do it as successfully as “Lost and Found.” The transitions between the reggae-tinged verses and poppy pre-choruses are seamless, and the buildup between the pre-choruses and choruses build until they explode into one of the biggest hooks of this contest.

13. Croatia
Franka - “Crazy”
Is anything more now than a sedate vocal over a manufactured beat? That beat got used multiple times for a reason. Franka's combination of sultry singing and spoken word are refreshingly cool. This does sexy R&B better than Latvia this year, especially with hypnotic moments like the bridge.

12. Denmark
Rasmussen - “Higher Ground” 
“Higher Ground” has the same songwriters as Timoteij’s “Kom” and has that same folky lilt. If you listen closely you can imagine those three/four blonde young women singing jauntily about peaceful Vikings. This is the closest we’ll get to filk in this year’s contest but it’s also an actual Melodifestivalen reject, meaning schlager in sound and definition. The melody also sounds like an epic action film score, but uses vivid imagery rejecting battle. Lines like “men laying down their swords/each of their own accord” are a nice complement to whatever the chorus of “Where I Am” meant. The manliest peace song you can think of.

11. Israel
Netta - "Toy"
As always this ranking is only personal preference of the recorded version on its own (and it was a tough call), but there's no denying that this song is already iconic. Netta is full of charisma and originality, and the song perfectly captures the zeitgeist. It's 2018 so let's throw out all the creeps. It's already all over the internet and everyone's Eurovision-casual friends love it, mine included. The song does all this while still sounding recognizably like an Israeli Eurovision song. It's the hot favorite and would be a great winner for multiple reasons. Some of the creative vocal sounds make it a little hard to listen to, but if it continues to connect with so many people it could be unstoppable.

Eurovision 2018 Song Ranking Part 5

20. Poland
Gromee feat. Lukas Meijer- “Light Me Up”
This sounds like the kind of poppy EDM that would have been huge a few years ago, and is already feeling a little dated in the real world but is still feeling fresh in Eurovision land. The simple melody is the background to the chillest summer party, maybe a barbecue or beach, a mental escape from the cares of the rest of the year.

19. Czech Republic
Mikolas Josef - “Lie To Me”
When thinking of the Czech Republic’s potential in Eurovision before this year, nobody could have thought they would produce and send something like this. “Lie to Me” is easily their best entry ever, a complete polished package. The trumpet riff calls to mind “Talk Dirty To Me,” and boy does he. Even in the revised version this song is filthy, but in a humorous, charismatic, and creative way. The “Tutti Frutti” reference seems appropriate to the and the “Lose Yourself” reference (who else rhymes heavy, already, and spaghetti in sequence?) is quickly becoming memetic.

18. Portugal
Claudia Pascoal - “O Jardim”
This song just sneaks up on you to take yo to another place. It’s about loss but has a very subdued, almost calming feel, especially with the beat in the chorus. During the second chorus, the songwriter Isaura joins in to do backing vocals, creating a sublime harmony.

17.Netherlands
Waylon - “Outlaw in ‘Em”
What kind of outlaw is Waylon, he’s Dutch! The Netherlands don’t have diamondbacks and is typically thought of in the US as liberal and full of legal vices, so where is the room to be an outlaw? No matter its actual authenticity, the singer believes in it. The lyrics are full of country cliché imagery with an unusual message for a song in this contest. Everyone’s a star, everyone’s a hero….no, today for once, everyone’s a rebel, which is not a bad sentiment if you need a different kick in the pants. A song to have a beer to.

16. Australia
Jessica Mauboy - “We Got Love”
The tipster who said this song was a banger was sorely mistaken on the definition of the word, but this song is still anthemic and uplifting. It really wants to be an anthem, dearly departed hashtag and all, and it could very well have life after the contest with that. This is how you do slick, catchy pop, and Australia hasn't had a miss yet.

Eurovision 2018 Song Ranking Part 4

25. Malta
Christabelle Borg - "Taboo" 
Yet another Swedish-penned pop song, but this one's got a good message, authentically written by the performer. The revamp lost a little energy, but it did bring us the Maltese Mad Max music video that hopefully will be interpreted in the staged performance.

24. Slovenia
Lea Sirk "Hvala Ne"
With this title, if this doesn't qualify the jokes write themselves. This song has a sassy edge and a beat that is fresher than anything they've sent since 2013. The chorus is a bit of a non-chorus, but that's what's popular now.

23. Estonia
Elina Nechayeva - "La forza"
This is a big fan favorite and while it's not bad, I don't get it as much as others. Elina has an impressive, beautiful voice, augmented by the Italian language. It would have benefitted from a longer running time, since it ends very abruptly.

22. United Kingdom
SuRie - "Storm" 
They tried, right? SuRie has a great voice and look. The song is fluffy - let's all come together and join hands, a typical tired concept for Eurovision. It only makes sense if you think really hard and twist the context so that it's a song about British people's pain, of banding together through an uncertain political/economic future. And in that way it's quite nice, like SuRie is scooping up the audience and giving them a genuine hug and tell them they're making it through. And it definitely feels more genuine than songs like "If We All Give A Little" or "Chain of Lights," owing to the performer's charisma. The revamp turned it into an anthem that makes the earworm chorus shine.

21. Moldova
DoReDos - "My Lucky Day"
Great band name - makes you think of eating chips. Appropriately they have a fast-food junk-food song. It would be at place in any of the past 15 Eurovisions and it would also be a crowd pleaser at any of them, a bouncy romp with ethnic instrumentation. Maybe now broadcasters can send better (and even Moldova can too) but it's just three minutes of fun and dancing to brighten the mood. The music video adds another layer, because it looks like the plot ends with them as a happy throuple laughing through Greece. Hopefully that's what the song is actually about.

Eurovision 2018 Song Ranking Part 3

30. Germany
Michael Schulte - "You Let Me Walk Alone"
There are a number of songs about someone else's pain (France, Italy), and more about someone's own pain (Germany, Hungary) and some in the middle (Portugal) and I don't know what it says about me that I prefer the former. It's a matter of genre probably.  This is a personal piano ballad that wouldn't sound out of place on the charts in the past 10 years. It might be one of the most personal and authentic songs that Germany has ever sent, which deserves applause.

29. Russia
Julia Samoylova - "I Won't Break" 
"Flame is Burning" has held up surprisingly well, but this isn't bad either. It's a soothing pop ballad with a positive message and a catchy two-part chorus. Side note: Julia's makeup looks really good in the video. The downside is the vocals are a little too overproduced and layered in a way that might not sound good live.

28. Belarus
Alexeev - "Forever"
Before the revamp, this was a cool slavic pop anthem with that cold synth production that's typically found in Russian and adjacent pop. I can't get enough of that stuff. After the revamp, the air was sucked out. The first half is a piano ballad that sounds like a "darker and edgier" cover. The synth production comes back halfway through, but it's too late. The choral backing of the final two choruses adds a mysterious touch, like it's accompanying a final boss battle. 

27. Greece
Yianna Terzi - "Oneirou Mou" 
Speaking of choral backing, it works beautifully in this song's choruses. A heartfelt love song to the singer's homeland, it creates a passionate and reverent atmosphere. The appropriate ethnic instrumentation and use of the Greek language create a complete product that Greek fans can be proud of. 

26. Montenegro
Vanja Radovanovic - "Inje"
Thank Zeljko Joksimovic every day for this revamp. His touch on the instrumentation elevated this to another classic Balkan ballad for eurovision. It holds such emotion and pain and drama. Every Eurovision needs at least one Balkan ballad and this fills that need.