Eurovision 2018 Predictions: Before Rehearsals

Predictions are always hard because even after watching rehearsals people always predict last placers to qualify. Still, the chances become much clearer if a performance is especially effective, or if they are disastrous. A magical staging can elevate a mediocre song, but poor performance or failed gimmick is much more likely to kill a great song. Here are my predictions for qualifiers before the rehearsals with the likeliness they are to change.

Semifinal 1

Definite unless there is an unlikely disaster: Israel, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Azerbaijan, Armenia

(Azerbaijan always squeaks through no matter what. I’m not sold on Israel live from the preview parties but she has huge appeal to a female audience).

Definite unless there is a possible disaster: Finland, Austria, Greece

(Fan favorite dance songs like Finland squeak through unless they are embarrassing, of which this has a high risk)

If amazing: Belgium, Czech Republic, Croatia, Estonia, Lithuania, Albania
(Estonia is gimmicky but gimmicky things do often go through. Lithuania also seems like it could be a qualifier but it could be too delicate to stick.)

Gonna take a miracle: FYR Macedonia, Switzerland, Ireland

No chance: Iceland, Belarus

My predicted qualifiers are all of the top two tiers, plus Belgium and the Czech Republic. Axel Hirsoux sacrificed his dear mother to secure Belgium’s good results and the endurance of that sacrifice will depend on Sennek’s vocal performance. If Finland has embarrassing props or costumes, then replace them with Croatia.



Semifinal 2
Definite unless there is an unlikely disaster: Ukraine, Sweden, Russia, Moldova, Hungary, Norway, Romania

(I believe Russia will pull through on the performance. Romania have qualified with worse. Norway will be such a crowd-pleaser)

In if sounding good: Poland, Australia

In if amazing:Denmark, Netherlands, Montenegro

Gonna take a miracle: Georgia, Malta, Latvia, Slovenia

No chance: San Marino, Serbia

My predicted qualifiers are all of the top two tiers plus Montenegro. Balkan ballads are still crowd-pleasers and I’m not sure how much Denmark or Montenegro will connect with the audience unless they have exceptional staging.