Eurovision 2018 Predictions

The rehearsals are over and it's finally time to make some binding predictions. I am flying to Lisbon tomorrow to attend my second Eurovision and won't have much time to write due to sightseeing and other commitments, so here are my predictions based on the reports and short video clips of the rehearsals. Not much has changed from my pre-rehearsal predictions, and it's especially hard to make predictions this year. There are plenty of songs that I wish could go to the final, but here are my predictions for likely qualifiers.

Semifinal 1 Qualifiers
AUSTRIA
ARMENIA
AZERBAIJAN
BULGARIA
CYPRUS
CZECH REPUBLIC
ESTONIA
GREECE
IRELAND
ISRAEL

Ireland have a good position and the running order and finally learned how to stage, and Estonia seems to blow people away. I sacrificed my favorites Belgium, Croatia, and Finland because they have less reliable support.

Semifinal 2 Qualifiers
AUSTRALIA
DENMARK
HUNGARY
MOLDOVA
NORWAY
POLAND
ROMANIA
RUSSIA
SWEDEN
UKRAINE

I'm swapping out Montenegro for Denmark. To defend my choices, I still think Russia the country has a lot of support even if there are stronger performances, and I think Romania also has a good amount of support plus the song will appeal to juries.


Final
Before rehearsals, my winner pick was that my brain said Israel, my heart said France, and my gut said Sweden. The first two are very popular and don't need explanation. Sweden wasn't and still isn't on anyone's radar, but I think that in the absence of a unanimous winner it could sneak through in a compromise because of its unique show, like 2015. Other songs that could make satisfactory winners are Bulgaria, Cyprus, Hungary, or Spain. There's something about those songs that could be eternal and endlessly covered, redone, or remembered. Personally, as much as I love France's song, it would be great if a country wins that has a longer or less convenient flight from New York to the host city, because preparing to attend this contest has done a number on personal commitments.

Good luck to all the participants!

Eurovision 2018 Song Ranking Part 8

5. Belgium
Sennek - "A Matter of Time"
There is something really special about this song. It’s not just a sultry bond-theme type ballad by a smoky voice. Out of all the songs in this contest, it would make the best vaporwave sample. Try listening to it sped up to 1.25 speed or slowed down to 0.75 speed – it works both ways. If Blanche brought the lights of a fast paced youthful city, this is a lounge singer in a dive bar in a cyberpunk city noir (basically put this on the soundtrack of VAA-11 HALL-A or something similar).

4. Sweden
Benjamin Ingrosso - "Dance You Off"
Sweden continues their killer stream with this really a e s t h e t i c song (and it's not just because of the music video) about trying to cheer yourself up through heartbreak. It can't really be said about this country, but as an entry it feels like a dark horse. This throwback dance pop is a little funky and very synthy Maybe it’s the high voice but it’s definitely along the lines of Michael Jackson homages of late. The lyrics are cute, especially “I dug you like you were treasure”. I love love love the vocal distortion on the bridge. It goes creative places with the melody line and does some cool things with breathiness. Way better than "Good Loving," this is an entry for the Spotify age.

3. Bulgaria
Equinox - "Bones"
If this is the de facto American entry, then that is all right with me. This is a blending of 5 (or 6 voices) where you can't tell where one ends and one begins Obviously, the Americans are the lead vocalists and why not, they are the strongest. By the end it’s a frenzy of vocal theatrics and climaxes that culminates into one spiritual wail. The lyrical premise is a little flimsy – they say its about a deep, pure, higher love, but to me it sounds like a pick up line like “I don’t just love your body, I love your soul” to try to sound deep and spiritual. Or maybe it's a neg, like you love someone despite their unattractive appearance? The music itself is nice and dark and synthy with a lot of spacey sounds. It sounds cold and mysterious, like they are sucking you into that black hole.

2. Finland
Saara Aalto - "Monsters"
After so many years of this blog, it should be clear by now what kind of trash I am. I love schlager, and I love a big hooky dance song. This is a real banger, no questions about it. With a winning writing pedigree, this has the biggest hook of the contest. I was not a fan of Saara prior to this contest but her vocals are on point, and she is a true dance diva here. This is a perfect chorus, with a little bit of a late 90s or early 00s feel in the melody but current enough in production. The vocal acrobatics during the bridge and final chorus are also sublime.

1. France
Madame Monsieur - "Mercy"
This song is the complete package. The music is a blend of electronic and acoustic, with snaps during the verses and a poppy drum machine in the chorus. The song itself is catchy – the chorus especially sticks in your head and has just enough beginner French to be memorable to the novice ear . The wordplay in the bridge can be easily understood, but works even if you don’t. And of the lyrics – they have the strongest message of the contest. The selection’s intent is up for debate, but “refugees are people too, especially refugee children” is heartfelt and should not be controversial. The fact that the subject(‘s mother) of the song approves means that there’s no issue with benefiting from other people’s pain. I got a little choked up during the English version at Eurovision In Concert too. It does share the situation with my top pick last year of losing something when it got cut to 3 minutes, but unlike that one it’s hardly noticeable that anything was cut. This version of the song feels complete.