Eurovision 2018 Predictions

The rehearsals are over and it's finally time to make some binding predictions. I am flying to Lisbon tomorrow to attend my second Eurovision and won't have much time to write due to sightseeing and other commitments, so here are my predictions based on the reports and short video clips of the rehearsals. Not much has changed from my pre-rehearsal predictions, and it's especially hard to make predictions this year. There are plenty of songs that I wish could go to the final, but here are my predictions for likely qualifiers.

Semifinal 1 Qualifiers
AUSTRIA
ARMENIA
AZERBAIJAN
BULGARIA
CYPRUS
CZECH REPUBLIC
ESTONIA
GREECE
IRELAND
ISRAEL

Ireland have a good position and the running order and finally learned how to stage, and Estonia seems to blow people away. I sacrificed my favorites Belgium, Croatia, and Finland because they have less reliable support.

Semifinal 2 Qualifiers
AUSTRALIA
DENMARK
HUNGARY
MOLDOVA
NORWAY
POLAND
ROMANIA
RUSSIA
SWEDEN
UKRAINE

I'm swapping out Montenegro for Denmark. To defend my choices, I still think Russia the country has a lot of support even if there are stronger performances, and I think Romania also has a good amount of support plus the song will appeal to juries.


Final
Before rehearsals, my winner pick was that my brain said Israel, my heart said France, and my gut said Sweden. The first two are very popular and don't need explanation. Sweden wasn't and still isn't on anyone's radar, but I think that in the absence of a unanimous winner it could sneak through in a compromise because of its unique show, like 2015. Other songs that could make satisfactory winners are Bulgaria, Cyprus, Hungary, or Spain. There's something about those songs that could be eternal and endlessly covered, redone, or remembered. Personally, as much as I love France's song, it would be great if a country wins that has a longer or less convenient flight from New York to the host city, because preparing to attend this contest has done a number on personal commitments.

Good luck to all the participants!