Eurovision 2021 Qualifier Predictions

 Here are my qualifier predictions, for posterity. There are some bold predictions with some fan favorites not qualifying and long stretches of qualifiers (the first-four qualifying that has only been done in Semifinal 2 of 2008). The quality is high this year and the result is going to be heartbreaking no matter what. This isn't my preferred result, but it's my best guess.

Semifinal 1:

LITHUANIA
SLOVENIA
RUSSIA
SWEDEN
CYPRUS
NORWAY
CROATIA
ROMANIA
UKRAINE
MALTA

Televote winner: Ukraine
Jury winner: Malta

Semifinal 2:

ESTONIA
GREECE
AUSTRIA
ICELAND
SERBIA
ALBANIA
PORTUGAL
BULGARIA
FINLAND
SWITZERLAND

Televote winner: Iceland
Jury winner: Bulgaria

Good luck to all participants!

Eurovision 2021 Song Ranking

Better late than never, right? It was really difficult to rank this year’s songs. The quality this year is very high. Even songs in the bottom half of my ranking could have easily been in the top half in another year. There isn’t enough room at the top so the results will be heartbreaking for sure. Still I made an attempt at it. This is a personal preference for this moment in time and after a certain point it becomes arbitrary. Instead of being critical I will try to say something nice about each entry.

1. Denmark – I love 80s, I love schlager, it makes me happy. I didn’t want this to be my favorite but it is. This is cheesy, delicious comfort food that commits 100% to being 80s.

2. Italy – Sexy and bluesy glam rock, with an authentic anti-authority streak. The opening is a E1M1-like kick in the face, the simple statement chorus is anthemic, and the fast, wordy second verse is a thing of beauty.

3. San Marino – Their best entry ever. There are many pop bangers with female vocals this year, but this is the catchiest. The rap feature in the bridge is the key to sounding like pop music from the outside world, it’s a mystery why others haven’t done it earlier in the contest.

4. Ukraine – Last year they had my favorite song, and this year’s effort might be even better. It’s harder, more hypnotic. It pulls you into a trance, then a frenzy as the tempo picks up. The bass drop in the bridge, followed by the flute kicking in, is perfect.

5. Poland – I listen to a lot of generic synthwave. Like my tolerance is really high, I could listen to it all day. So no matter how much hate it gets online, it’s right up my alley. Especially the cold (and accented) male vocals. The bridge is the best part of the song and they know it.

6. Netherlands – This is the definition of being unapologetically one’s self. Radiates joy and power through adversity. The vocals are soothing and uplifting.

7. Belgium – Cool sound, leaning psychedelic, with lyrics about being cool. The bassline in the pre-chorus is beautiful. The intensity gives me Jun Togawa vibes, although without the vocal range, but with the intensity.

8. Finland – Millennial nostalgia bomb. The lyrics sound like they were written like the shallowest edgelord in 2004 (enough surface level references to seem “dark” but shifting tonally enough to clearly not be personal), but that is part of the appeal. The sound is on the poppier side of nu metal, which we haven’t heard in Eurovision before and should have much sooner.

9. Serbia – Absolutely fun uptempo Balkan dance-pop that leans more reggaeton than turbofolk The repetition in the chorus is effective. A party throughout.

10. Cyprus – This song is greater than the sum of its parts. It does some really weird things (food references, the pre-chorus, the creepy childlike chanting in the bridge and final chorus), but most of it is “regular pop banger”. It escalates into an unforgettable pop séance.

11. Slovenia – A beautiful power ballad featuring a unique beautiful voice. The gospel choir and booming drums give this the best final chorus moment in the contest. If not for some awkward lyrics this would be higher.

12. Australia – This is so cute and unabashedly girly. I’m not a big hyperpop fan, but this is definitely taking influence from adjacent acts like the genius Rina Sawayama.

13. Iceland – It’s my least favorite of the trilogy, but it still hits fantastic. This is glorious synth funk that shows both genuine emotion and a genuine love for synth music. Crafted to be catchy fun.

14. Sweden – Not only does it sound like an Idol winner’s song, it sounds like a default Eurovision winner’s song. Unmistakably Swedish, polished to perfection, and hitting all the right notes.

15. Switzerland – A lovely but complex ballad. Easy to pass by but when you let it in, it takes over. Gjon has an angelic voice.

16. Croatia – The star is the hypnotic and sexy bass-heavy chorus, which is then lifted by the shimmering synth hook in the post-chorus. The switch to Croatian for the first chorus after the bridge is probably the most effective language switch of its kind.

17. Spain – This lovely ballad grew on me a lot. It’s a super adult contemporary piano ballad that (appropriately?) a boy band would sing. Honestly any K-pop boy band could sing this and it would be a hit.

18. Russia – More heart and personality than many of their recent entries. The lyric digs deep to real societal frustration. The chorus is a women’s hymn that tumbles into a danceable beat.

19. Greece – Another synthwave-influenced song, but in its core, with a more mainstream pop coating. The backing chorus in the pre-chorus and chorus gives an epic feel.

20. Malta – Destiny is Malta’s star and she is better than this song, she is 90% of the appeal. Electro swing isn’t my thing, but the chorus is still catchy. It’s a whole unremovable earworm.

21. Moldova – This is fun and appropriately sugary. The combination of the strings and bass is Eurovision old-meets-new.

22. Lithuania – The nearly spoken chorus over a funky bassline calls to mind a robot warming itself up. And the big chorus is just what you want from them after last year (in more ways than one). Can a dance song be more about self-care than partying? Yes, and some need to be.

23. Ireland – This feels both really Scandinavian and believably Irish. The theme of missing home is universal, and the metaphor in the bridge is powerful.

24. Israel – Two words: whistle notes. This and Iceland are two halves of a whole disco.

25. Czech Republic – Fun and uptempo love song with some lyrics that reflect some very now frustrations. The “dating in 2021” anthem.

26. Azerbaijan – Bangers about historical figures and events are far too rare, so it's always fun when they pop up.

27. Norway – You can't say this isn't a polished pop song.

28. Latvia –The chorus is a powerful statement and almost witchy.

29. United Kingdom – The chorus and horn hook especially sound like they would fit right in as a morning show bumper. 

30. North Macedonia –A classic musical theater "I am" song, the chorus is super catchy and pops into my head all of the time.

31. Albania –It's not Eurovision without a Balkan ballad, and this delivers the drama.

32. Romania – It feels fresh and timely, and the singer has a lovely tone of voice.

33. France –A classic and effective chanson, the textbook definition of it.

34. Austria – So many Eurovision classics have been dramatic breakup ballads, and this one is this year's offering

35. Portugal - There's a piano bar sort of charm to this song.

36. Germany - The unwavering positivity and self-acceptance in the face of negativity is admirable.

37. Bulgaria - It doesn't quite connect with me but seems to have touched a lot of people.

38. Estonia - The chorus is memorable, catchy, and has a unique heaviness to it.

39. Georgia - The simplicity, slowness, and natural focus of the lyrics is very soothing. 

Good luck to all participants!

Wrapping Up 2020, Eurovision Style

This blog’s ranking of every song in the annual Eurovision Song Contest should have happened in March, but since this year’s contest was cancelled I lost interest in writing it. I started working on my ranking in March and revised it every now and then, but just didn’t have the energy. With the last few minutes of 2020 running out in my time zone, and the 2021 season officially starting last week, it’s time to collect my thoughts.

My partial top 20 ranking from March is:

1) Ukraine
2) Iceland
3) Belarus
4) Switzerland
5) Serbia
6) Czech Republic
7) Lithuania
8) Russia
9) Sweden
10) San Marino
11) France
12) Netherlands
13) North Macedonia
14) Ireland
15) Armenia
16) Finland
17) Malta
18) Belgium
19) Austria
20) Azerbaijan

Like many years, the top songs didn’t last to be my year-end favorites. The songs I ended up listening to most were upbeat. Of this year’s songs, the forever listenable song from the Czech Republic was my most listened to on Spotify, and Israel’s and Serbia’s also appeared on my year-end top 100. Contrast with last year, where the top 5 all appeared in order. I ended up listening to other songs from Russia’s and Ukraine’s artists more. Some songs I really liked in March were hard to listen to over time. It feels weird to rank anything below the top 20 because the show didn’t happen and more than half of performers are returning for 2021, and it doesn’t seem fair to bring negative preconceptions to their new songs that they have spent so much time on.

“Think About Things” seems made for 2020: the optimistic future-thinking wholesome lyric, the 80’s throwback funk, the TikTok-ready dance. It’s also somehow really late 00’s: the unpolished nerdiness, the synth devotion that calls more to chiptunes' heyday than current synth. No one can say if it would have won, but based on the reaction and how it’s still making year-end best-of lists, it would have been very high in the televote.

One of the other stories of the season was the potential comeback of Lithuania. “On Fire” doesn’t hold up as much in comparison to some of the other similar competitors, but it has an unabashed self-acceptance of weirdness. The national selection was the best it’s ever been, pushing past its amateurish and/or bland (sometimes both) output to have a huge variety of polished but unique songs. Hopefully it is not a one-time occasion, and I am genuinely excited for their selection this year.

One song that had no expectations but was surprisingly good was from San Marino. In the 00’s, disco songs in Eurovision were tired and dated, but 2020 was the year of the disco revival all over popular music, making “Freaky” one of the freshest songs of the year.

The Eurovision season that never had a proper ending really ended with the Netflix movie. Against all odds, it was a parody that was very kind. It had nothing but love for the contest and its fans, which you can’t say for the contest itself. It certainly lacked for accuracy and fanservice, but at least here in the US it made a lot of non-fans excited. It’s bittersweet that the story centered on Iceland in a year where the country seemed destined for their first win.

Looking towards 2021, what would I like to see from the contest (besides a contest actually happening in any possible form)? The disco revival and mainstream entry of synthwave music both started in late 2019, and I would like to see both of them make a full entry in Eurovision. Many past competitors have hopped in on these trends but putting them in the contest itself would be truly current yet accessible to an all-ages audience.

There’s more I could say about 2020's songs, but it’s time to brush them aside and focus on the possibility of the future. Happy New Year and here’s to a better 2021!

Eurovision 2020: The Entries That Almost Were

National final season is over and we know all the songs for the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest (or will very very soon). What a ride it's been. It's harder to get as excited about this year's set of songs. However, it brought the world some excellent songs that didn’t make it to the big stage but made it to many fans’ consciousness and playlists. Here are my top ten that we won’t see in May:

1) Albania - “Me tana” 

2) Finland - “Cicciolina” 

These two bangers bookended the season, coming second place in huge upsets. The winners are excellent ballads, but these two would have been perfection on the Eurovision stage. “Me tana” has an almost turbofolk flavor and a fun party vibe. “Cicciolina” is the definition of “almighty bop,” electro disco that sounds more than a little like “Lay All Your Love On Me”. And that Midsommar-esque national final performance could have been iconic. These two losses sting the most.

3) Sweden - “Bulletproof” 

4) Sweden - “Boys With Emotions” 

These were the highlights of Sweden’s Melodifestivalen this year. In a contest that sounds decreasingly hook-y, “Bulletproof” brought a massive hook with “Undo”-with-a-laser-show vibes. “Boys With Emotions” could describe the prevailing theme in this year’s entries and national selection contenders, but brought a clear, concise, and important message along with a cool beat.

5) Lithuania - “We Came From The Sun” 

6) Lithuania - “Tave Čia Randu” 

Lithuania’s national selection was the biggest redemption arc of the season. For too long it had been overly lengthy and amateurish, but this year the quality was exceptional. There was a wealth of excellent songs to choose from, including the actual winner, and over half of the songs would have made fine entries. My favorite was “We Came From the Sun,” a mystical synthpop song with an intense breakdown after the final chorus. There were gems that got left behind in the semifinals too, especially the almost synthwave ballad “Tave cia randu.” Their selection was a sign of great things to come.

7) Slovenia – “The Salt” 

8) Australia - “Rabbit Hole” 

There were a lot of fun style throwbacks this year, to genres that aren’t really popular now but were popular too recently to be retro. Slovenia’s “The Salt” brought us nu-metal and Australia’s “Rabbit Hole” brought use indie rock, both with catchy hooks and good messages.

9) Croatia - “You Will Never Break My Heart” 

10) Belarus - “Pour lui” 

These two don’t really have much in common other than being uptempo. “You Will Never Break My Heart” uses ethnic touches, an arena-filling feel, and an almost aggressive defiance. “Pour lui” is questionable French trance. Both are absolutely fabulous and fun, also very missed.

Five honorable mentions are:

Denmark - “Den eneste goth i Vejle”

Never would I ever expect new wave/goth music from Denmark. Please do it again.

Slovenia - “Sing to me” 

It might not have stood out as much in this year’s contest, but this creates such a cool, dark ambience

Australia - “Life”

Australia gave up the opportunity to go full Mad Max with this glam rock triumph.

Norway - “Wild” 
There has to be one of these every year lately (typically it gets given to Margaret) but it’s always a joy. The lyrics are bizarre for sure with the animal imagery, and even without, worth an overanalysis.

Portugal - “Dizsó” 

There is a wealth of amazing music genres in the Lusophone world, and some of them get featured in Festival da Canção. I hope someday we hear something like “Diz só” in Eurovision.

Eurovision 2019 Semifinal Predictions

After weeks of ranking, rehearsals are complete and the jury shows are underway. Who will make up Saturday night's line up? Instead of making predictions on who will qualify, which usually results in something around 7/10 right, I will list the optimal qualifiers for my viewing party on Saturday based on the likely preferences of my friends


OPTIMAL PARTY LINEUP
Semifinal 1:

Australia
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Georgia
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Poland
Portugal
Slovenia

It really says something about Finland's song and performance that being a meme wouldn't add more than a little amusement to a party. San Marino is also an honorable mention for the camp value, but the other 10 acts are more interesting visually.

Semifinal 2:

Albania
Azerbaijan
Croatia
Ireland
Malta

Netherlands
North Macedonia
Norway

Russia
Sweden

I think Moldova would go over well too visually but maybe not sonically, Albania sonically but not visually, and Latvia is a chill wildcard.


My actual predictions aren't the same (Serbia and Switzerland seem like likely qualifiers although I'm less sure of the latter) but these would result in the most fun on Saturday.

Good luck to all competitors!

Eurovision 2019 Song Ranking Part 8

5. Portugal

Conan Osiris – “Telemoveis”

The common reaction to this song is something like “unlike anything else” or “sounds like the future” or “this is incomprehensible art” or even “unlike what I usually listen to.” I have to disagree. “Telemoveis” is the music of now albeit in a beautifully Portuguese variation, a Soundcloud-esque blend of chill and melancholy except the melancholy is kind of saudade. This is the perfect accompaniment to a bus or train trip. Thank you Festival da Cancao for introducing me to this amazing artist, for I have now heard his back catalog and it’s all good if not even better. Before there was “I’m taking my Pikachu home” there was “SURFIN ALAPRAS.”

4. Italy

Mahmood – “Soldi”

Definitely more fresh and Spotify than typical Italy, this song is captivating and dynamic. The instrumentation changes from tense piano and strings to an electronic beat and iconic handclaps flawlessly. It still has that Sanremo wordiness – there’s something about Italian that makes having a lot of syllables sound good. Even if you don’t understand Italian you can tell there’s a story and real pain behind this.

3. Norway

KeiiNO - “Spirit In the Sky”

What else can you say about this song? My tastes outside of Eurovision have moved away from standard pop lately but I will never stop loving schlager Europop, and “Spirit In the Sky” is as Europop schlager fanbait as you can get. The joiking is a nice touch to both make it unique and add local flavor. As many have pointed out, it sounds like “Monsters” in the chord progression but not exactly in melody, so it’s far rom a copy. It’s not particularly fresh at all and could have entered in any Eurovision since the mid-00s, but I don’t care.

2. Cyprus

Tamta - “Replay”

Round two of Cyprus’s tropical pop domination, although less Mediterranean and more electronic like the 808 the lyrics reference. The big brass horns in the chorus are commanding, and the pre-chorus is the best tension-building moment in the whole contest. A song to listen to on replay again and again.

1. Iceland

Hatari – “Hatrið mun sigra”

“Hatrið mun sigra” is a banger and a blessing. The growling verses and falsetto synthpop chorus a perfect contrast, reflecting the conflict in the song that is very relevant. The industrial darkwave music is matched by their visual style. The band itself is at the intersection of indie music festival fare, art school collective, and boy band, a joy to follow. This is one of Iceland's best entries if not the best, and I need to go book a flight to Iceland to see them ASAP.

Eurovision 2019 Song Ranking Part 7

10. Slovenia
Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl - "Sebi"
Lo-fi chill beats to fall in love and believe in yourself to. This is way more ambient than the usual Eurovision song, but in a fresh, youthful 2019 way. I have loved many of Slovenia's trashiest entries but this is pure coolness and it's just as good. The spacey synths are the standout, and unlike many electronic songs in the contest in recent years, Zala's vocals are warm and intimate. The introvert anthem of the year.

9. Spain
Miki - "La venda"
The jolt of energy in this year's contest is ska! Or at least it was until the revamp, but those horns and that ending don't lie. With a positive almost progressive message hidden in the lyrics, this is feel-good all around. One of their best songs in a while that genuinely gets the party started and the audience standing.


8. Azerbaijan
Chingiz - "Truth"
Symphonix International keeps churning out hits with little connection to the local music scene (with some exceptions) and I am here for it. This song is very house-influenced, especially with that vocal chorus. The influence from last year's American-Bulgarian Trey Campbell, the best part of Equinox, is obvious. The chorus sounds like he's singing it, which is far from a bad thing. The vocal samples preceding the introduction, verses, and final chorus ("I don't need the truth") sound hard to replicate live but intense in a vaporwave way.

7. France
Bilal Hassani - "Roi"
Bilal is a pure cinnamon roll who must be protected, the rare Youtuber who stays free of drama and shows positive behavior. His song is a sweet gem too, by my favorites last year Madame Monsieur. The bilingual mix of French and English feels effortless and natural, much like teens in a casual conversation, in a way that songs in this venue often aren't. The positive self-affirming message flies in the face of haters and hopefully inspires viewers outside of France.

6. Czech Republic
Lake Malawi - "Friend of a Friend"
Can you hear it? It sounds like the Czech Republic/Czechia is finally coming into its own in Eurovision. Unlike last year's fresh sound, this year is a peppy throwback, a Bill Wurtz-esque bouncy synth pop with slightly unusual lyrics. The instrumental riff in the post-chorus, punctuated by the "I'm only a friend" sample, is one of the catchiest moments this year. The theme is unlike any other in this contest or maybe in any of them, and illustrates what I like to call the 2019 Eurovision Horniness Matrix. The axes of performance and lyric should be directly related, with most close to zero in both. Switzerland isn't as high as it thinks it should be, and the gone but not forgotten Ukraine is off the charts in both. Something interesting happens when the two variables aren't directly proportional. For example, Iceland is exceedingly horny in performance and dress, but the lyrics are about chaos and destruction, the Eurovision equivalent of Soul Calibur. The reverse occurs with the Czech Republic, a group of clean-cut guys happily bopping around the stage and screen, but there's no ambiguity in the lyrics: this song is about eavesdropping on your neighbors having sex and trying to reassure your partner you aren't enjoying it. Not very horny performance, very horny lyric, and for the second year in the row. Keep up the good work CZ.

Eurovision 2019 Song Ranking Part 6

15. Switzerland

Luca Hänni - “She Got Me”

This song wants to be Despacito 2 but is actually Despacito Junior. The Latin American influence is hard to take seriously. For a song allegedy about “dirty dancing” the lyrics are remarkably tame, and few for that matter. There’s nothing sexy about “when she go low/she go so low” and “getting rowdy rowdy.” As with those examples, there is too much repetition in the lyrics, and for that number of syllables the writers missed the opportunity for some more vibrant imagery, showing not telling said dirty dancing. The melody is super catchy and it’s well produced, which is why it’s this high, but every time I listen to this song I wish I was listening to Despacito. This song has no mature eros and just makes me feel old.

14. Poland

Tulia - “Fire of Love (Pali sie)”

Their vocal style may be an aquired taste, but I think their dark intensity loops back around to being charming. This is the closest thing we have to a rock song this year and I love that it’s by female vocalists in such an unusual style. The combination of traditional folk vocals with alternative rock is genius. Side note, their cover of Enjoy the Silence is amazing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6PqleeOdXGo.

13. Sweden

John Lundvik - “Too Late for Love”

The rare Swedish entry that is better live than recorded, the live version has a magical warmth that the overproduced and autotuned ecorded version lacks. This is yet another easy walk into the top 5 for Sweden, but instead of neo-schlager or generic Spotify, it’s a gospel-tinged love song. And that ending! The buildup and charisma leaves you answering, “no it’s not.”

12. Croatia

Roko - “The Dream”

Maybe it’s country bias or bad taste but I love this song. I loved “My Friend” and while this doesn’t hit those ridiculous heights it’s a dramatic balkan ballad with an angelic voice. Even the cheesy lyrics (“I have a dream/A dream as beautiful as it is extreme”) are amusing, although the Croatian part is better.

11. Malta

Michela - “Chameleon”

Fresh, youthful radio pop from a country who doesn’t usually bring it. This tropical pop song is the best Maltese song in a really long time. It’s surprising what they can do when they go internal for song quality. The only downside is the drop after the chorus and in the bridge loses just a little too much steam, but it makes up for it by the last chorus.

Eurovision 2019 Song Ranking Part 5

20. Albania

Jonida Maliqi - “Ktheju tokës”

The melody and intensity is very Albanian entry but it almost has an anime opening theme quality. You can hear the pain and desperation in her voice and in the intense drums and strings. This is one of their best entries this decade.

19. Israel

Kobi Marimi - “Home”

This year’s perfectly musical theater ballad. The lyrics are pretty awkward but the melody is so beautiful, simple yet powerful, with a commanding vocal. A little bonus for the Xbox fans with that Halo theme opening.

18. North Macedonia

Tamara Todevska - “Proud”

This is the Balkan ballad of the contest, with a beautiful and inspiring empowerment message. Tamara is singing to all of us giving us the pep talk we need.

17. United Kingdom

Michael Rice - “Bigger Than Us”

If any country deserves a participation trophy for not tripping over their feet it’s the UKoGBaNI, but this, this is really underrated. Yes it’s a Melodifestivalen reject but sometimes they need to be free to fly. It’s the right time for them to just send a soulful love ballad with no political undertone at all. If it was sent by Sweden this would do pretty well.

16. Netherlands

Duncan Laurence - “Arcade”

This is definitely an unconventional choice given this is the overwhelming favorite. I admit it’s beautiful and emotional. It’s almost too vulnerable, especially that wailing falsetto in the chorus, that it doesn’t do much for me emotionally. I get a sort of Sufjan Stevens sensitive vibe, soft and mournful. I get why it’s doing well but I need more intensity.

Eurovision 2019 Song Ranking Part 4

25. Greece 
Katerine Duska - "Better Love"
If country names weren't attached, you would never guess this was Greek, but it's refreshing. Katerine has a unique and powerful voice. The song is really mainstream and sounds like it's destined to be featured in romantic comedy trailers, but it just doesn't connect with me.

24. Hungary
Joci Pápai - "Az én apám"
His first entry two years ago was very underrated by me and came alive on stage with his heart bared to the world. This year's entry still has the same emotional power as a ballad. There's something so chill about the melody, especially the "na na na" chorus.

23. Russia
Sergey Lazarev - "Scream"
This was hard to do. It's Sergey, I would gladly put him #1, I stan, but his song isn't worth it. It's  more new Sergey but not among his better work. The song's structure and lyrics are unusual, but it looks like it could have a touching performance. Definitely a song to be seen rather than heard.

22. Estonia
Victor Crone - "Storm"
Victor looks and sounds like Måns' younger brother who wants to tell you about craft beers. The song is catchy but meaningless (I think the gist of the chorus is basically "everything isn't okay but actually it is"). It's over before it begins. It's really pleasant to listen to, but super generic Swedish pop.

21. Moldova
Anna Odobescu - "Stay"
This point in the ranking is where the "cheesy but I still like it" stuff starts. "Stay" is the kind of power ballad I love that frequently populates Moldova's selection and rarely wins. This is like "Fight" from 2007 but with the guitars removed (maybe it could have benefited). This is really unpopular so far but how could you not love that epic key change?