Semifinal Analysis: Ranking vs. Performance Last Year

Although each year is a new experience and thus examination of past statistics are unhelpful, I continue to do it. I’ll also be the first to admit that that my rankings are horribly inaccurate compared to the actual results, and usually give insight into nothing other than my personal musical tastes. A simple analysis of my top-ranked semifinalists from 2006 to 2008 shows this. In 2006 and the second semifinal of 2008, only five of my top 10 ranked semifinalists qualified. In 2007, the first semifinal of 2008, and 2008 overall, seven of my top 10 ranked semifinalists qualified. Also, in all three previous years of my rankings, I have never had all of my overall top five in the final.

Behind the cut are some statistics comparing the performance of the semifinalists from 2008 to my rankings of them. Their actual place in the semifinal is in parentheses, and their placing in the final is in a second set of parentheses if they managed to qualify.

2008 Semifinal 1
1. Slovenia (11)
2. Bosnia & Herzegovina (9) (10)
3. Russia (3) (1)
4. Greece (1) (3)
5. Armenia (2) (4)
6. Poland (10) (24)
7. Azerbaijan (6) (8)
8. Netherlands (13)
9. Belgium (17)
10.Finland (8) (22)
11. Israel (5) (9)
12. Romania (7) (20)
13. Norway (4) (5)
14. Ireland (15)
15. Andorra (16)
16. San Marino (19)
17. Moldova (12)
18. Montenegro (14)
19. Estonia (18)
In this semifinal, the top three was in my top five. Five of my top ten were in the top ten in the final. Only Russia had the same place in my ranking and the actual results. Four other countries (Andorra, Azerbaijan, Estonia, and Ireland) were one place off from the actual rankings. None of the 1/5 rated songs qualified, a first for me.

2008 Semifinal 2
1. Sweden (12) (18)
2. Iceland (8) (14)
3. Ukraine (1) (2)
4. FYR Macedonia (10)
5. Czech Republic (18)
6. Portugal (2) (13)
7. Belarus (17)
8. Malta (14)
9. Albania (9) (17)
10. Bulgaria (11)
11. Switzerland (13)
12. Georgia (5) (11)
13. Cyprus (15)
14. Lithuania (16)
15. Latvia (6) (12)
16. Croatia (4) (21)
17. Denmark (3) (15)
18. Hungary (19)
19. Turkey (7) (7)
My top 10 was horribly off, with only one song scoring in the top ten in the final. Only the top two and the bottom three of the top ten in the semifinal were in my top ten. Both the tenth place through the public vote (FYR Macedonia) and the tenth place through jury vote (Sweden) were in my top five. Four of my bottom five were in the actual top ten.

This just goes to show that my ranking is completely inaccurate once the performance factor is added. Last year my predictions on the day preceding the show were more accurate than me pre-show favorites.