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Tuesday, May 25, 2010

2010 Semifinal 1 Predictions: Math the Moment!

The first semifinal of Eurovision 2010 starts in about three hours and I now have my predictions. I've been watching rehearsal footage and reading reviews, but instead of basing my predictions on something useful like observations of the performance, I'm basing my predictions on meaningless statistics.

I combined two sets of rankings to make a "jury vote" and "public vote." Assuming that hardcore fans vote similarly to the juries, I used the OGAE voting as of the most recent one released on ESCToday, which can be found here, to create a jury ranking. Assuming that general internet users vote similarly to the general public, I used Google's Eurovision forecast, to create a public ranking. I then combined the two rankings, adding the entries' places in both, like so (first number is OGAE, second is Google):
1. Albania 12+5=17
2. Belgium 1+20=21
3. Croatia 19+3=22
The countries used above are just examples.

It feels a little pointless to do predictions based on flawed numbers (both rankings allow countries to vote for entries that are not in their own semifinal), but considering that now one can vote for a song before it has even been performed, it's important to take into consideration the pre-contest hype.

Based on the above, here are my predictions for the qualifiers from this evening's semifinal:

ALBANIA
BELARUS
BELGIUM
ESTONIA
GREECE
ICELAND
MOLDOVA
POLAND
SERBIA
SLOVAKIA

3 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Never bet against Russia (diaspora EVERYWHERE) or Bosnia and Herzegovina (too many other Balkan countries).

I was very happy to see Portugal make it (and they have a good draw in the final). I didn't think they would.

5/26/2010 9:27 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don't want to have to rush this right before the show starts, so:

What I WANT to happen:
01 Romania
02 Denmark
03 Bulgaria
04 Ireland
05 Sweden
06 Armenia
07 Turkey
08 Lithuania
09 Switzerland
10 Georgia
11 Croatia
12 Netherlands
13 Israel
14 Cyprus
15 Ukraine
16 Slovenia
17 Azerbaijan

What I EXPECT to happen:
01 Azerbaijan
02 Turkey
03 Armenia
04 Denmark
05 Sweden
06 Israel
07 Romania
08 Ireland
09 Croatia
10 Ukraine
11 Georgia
12 Bulgaria
13 Lithuania
14 Cyprus
15 Switzerland
16 Netherlands
17 Slovenia

5/27/2010 7:51 AM  
Anonymous Algar said...

Really effective data, thank you for the article.
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