Predictions for the Final...or Not
It's finally here and after all this time reading about it...it's still pretty hard to make a prediction. This is most likely due to the addition of two semi finals, because we know that 20 songs were voted on enough by viewers to pass on to the finals already, but since we don't know how those songs placed each song has the potential to be a neighbor favorite, the jury pick, or the overwhelming favorite. This change really seems to be positive: getting better songs into the final instead of letting last year's top 10 slide by with minimal effort, cutting down on complaints of neighborly and diaspora voting (at least in the semifinals, the complaints will be there in the final), and finally adding more suspense and excitement to the whole thing, which is really the point of an entertainment program - to entertain and excite you. The change in the fan community has been amazing too. In February and March a lot of people were complaining about the quality of the songs, but now the general consensus seems to be that this final will be excellent.
I will offer some (unoriginal) predictions about the Big 4 and last years winner: The United Kingdom, Germany, and unfortunately France will probably end up as part of the bottom 5, and Spain and Serbia will probably end up in the top 10 if not the top 5. My record so far is about 75% so I know I'll be wrong on at least one or two of these.
Now, as for who I hope will win: I'd be thrilled if Sweden, Iceland, or Portugal won; happy if Armenia, Bosnia, Greece, Romania, Serbia, or Ukraine won; worried for the fan reaction if Russia or Spain won; and any other winner would either surprise or disappoint me.
Again, I'll wish good luck to all the performers, stage crew, and broadcasters that they put on an entertaining and technically flawless show!
Note: I will comment on the final results tomorrow, as I want to see the fan response before I say anything
posted by Goggle @ 10:06 AM
1 Comments:
Many people have expressed praise for the new format. So far, so good, but I think it needs a little more use, at least, to call it a success. It does accomplish one useful thing, though - it eliminates weak songs from the final (except for the big four and the host) just because a country did well the prior year. I have also seen many people call this the strongest final in years. I agree with that, and have said all along that this seemed like a strong year (every year brings out a lot of "the songs are so bad this year" complaints, but I didn't believe that at all about this year).
As for what I think will happen:
The song that LOOKS (meaning visual appeal only) the most like a Eurovision winner is Greece. It also matches the most common recent "type" of winner (solo female artist singing an uptempo song in English), and Greece can pull in votes from everywhere.
I still think the contest remains Serbia's to lose, but only with a best performance. This year's final has only three ex-Yugoslavia countries in it, and I don't rate Croatia as a serious contender, so this will only compete with Bosnia and Herzegovina for Balkan votes.
No solo male artist has won Eurovision since 1990 (and before that, only Johnny Logan since 1966). I don't think much of the song, but Russia came close last year, and has a better performer this year. I think they will fall just short again however, especially with strong Ukrainian and Armenian songs again getting votes in the eastern countries that normally vote heavily for Russia.
Ukraine didn't impress me in the semi-final. She looked nervous. Maybe she puts it together and wins the whole thing, but I don't think so.
I loved Bosnia and Herzegovina from the beginning. This stands out anywhere in the draw, and while I don't think they have enough to win, they will easily finish in the top ten.
Turkey finished second in the televoting among western countries last year with a weaker song, and despite the tougher competition this year, have a lock on another top ten slot.
Sweden could have won the 1999 contest with this song, but it's not good enough to win in 2008. They will repeat its 2003, 2004, and 2006 results - a good finish, but not near the top of the table.
I didn't think Armenia deserved to qualify based on its performance in the semi-final. I like the song, though, and assuming she gets her vocals together, they will make the top ten again.
Spain has a funny joke song with a good draw. That should lead to the first top ten finish for a big four country since 2004.
The big ballad still has a place in Eurovision. Portugal gave a great performance in the semi-final, but I don't think the song has enough to push it up with the contenders, and singing first after the break means a big loss of points.
The rest:
Israel
Georgia
Romania
Norway
Latvia
Finland
Azerbaijan
Albania
Denmark
Iceland
United Kingdom
Poland
Croatia
France
Germany
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