Eurosunday: The Morning After
So, Russia won and Sweden flopped. Unlike some people I'm not going to let this get to me, because really the only result that matters now is the winner, as everyone else gets a chance to start fresh next year (this is assuming they keep the two semi finals format). And what a winner. Some people have been complaining that it was fixed - since I wasn't there I can't know for sure, but it is sure that Russia, unlike a lot of Western countries, put a lot of money and effort into their entry. They had a popular singer whose star has only risen since his last Eurovision appearance, a popular ice skater, and a popular American songwriter. Even if we forget about neighbor/diaspora voting, I think this is a good winner because it is an Eurovision winner that is contemporary and reflects what is in the charts at the time.
As for my dear favorite Sweden, I'm disappointed but not surprised. I accept that it just wasn't everyone's cup of tea. I think that something that perhaps the Swedish broadcasters need to look into is a simpler stage for Melodifestivalen, or at least if they keep up the trend of the past 2 years of a large stage with several elevation differences, to change the choreography before Eurovision so it looks better on a simple flat stage. This combined with poor camerawork gave Charlotte's performance less of a visual appeal (also some people say that she looked freaky, but I try not to say mean things about people's appearances).
Just like the past three years 1 song out of my top 5 was also in the top 5, so it's a good enough result for me. In 2006 and 2007 3 song in my top 10 were also in the top 10, and this year I got 4 in the top 10. Like 2006 the top 3 of the night were in my top 10.
My fellow New Yorker with Greece came 3rd, congrats to her. Norway did just as well as other fans predicted despite me not liking it. My bad on that, but good for them. I think Malta should consider changing their name to Schlagerboyland, or at least giving the duo positions with their broadcasters, because for the last two years they give their 12 points to whoever the Schlagerboys want. Congrats to them for having such a sway over the public! Joke entries crashed and burned across the board, as Spain came in 16th. It's interesting how there were so many ties, including a 3-way tie for last place.
It seems so far to me that the two semi final format works, because even though it doesn't cut down on block voting in the final (because that's impossible) it increases the quality of the songs in the final. And what quality it was. The songs from my top 5 that were in the final (Ukraine, Iceland, France, Sweden) were all fabulous! France's performance showed that if your country's broadcaster has stopped caring about Eurovision, this is the way to do it, unlike Spain's trying-too-hard comedy entry. The beards, the golf cart, the helium, the nonchalance - it was a bit of a trainwreck but a brilliant one. I think this is the first time I have seen a singer inhale helium on stage while singing during a live broadcast.
So, no matter the results, the winners to me are the best songs and performances, and this year's Eurovision season has provided a lot of great songs and performances and introduced me to many great new songs and artists.
posted by Goggle @ 8:29 AM
2 Comments:
(written especially for here): I do think Sweden deserved better (lower part of the top ten). Her performance (especially at the start of the song) did not seem visually attractive (bad lighting or whatever). That said, I still don't like the idea of a jury pulling someone into the final that the televoters passed on.
I might stick a voting analysis comment on in a few days. Otherwise, see you next year. I enjoy reading your thoughts.
On to my comments which I have just been sticking in a file as they come into my head:
Can we FINALLY put to rest the ridiculous notion that the second semi-final had stronger songs than the first?
Semi-final one: 1, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10, 20, 22, 24
Semi-final two: 2, 7, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 21
The first semi-final contained four of the top five finishers and seven of the top ten (I always saw it as MUCH stronger). Heck, Bosnia and Herzegovina, which finished ninth in the first semi-final, beat all of the songs in the second semi-final (except top ten locks Ukraine and Turkey) peforming from the sixth position, a much worse draw than most of the finalists from the second semi-final.
Don't dismiss the odds. The top three favorites finished (in order) one, two, and three.
Most of the sudden movement in the odds didn't mean anything, but I did wonder about the integrity of keeping the semi-final results confidential. Some people do know them, of course, and that knowledge would allow anyone knowing them a significant wagering advantage.
I correctly predicted seven out of the top ten. I saw seven "sure" top ten finishers: Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Greece, Russia, Serbia, Turkey, and Ukraine. Unfortunately, none of my three "unsure" choices made it. Number seven Sweden finished eighteenth (lower than I imagined), number nine Spain finished sixteenth (I should have paid more attention to the rehearsal reports), and number ten Portugal finished thirteenth (I knew they wouldn't come close to winning, but the press had me convinced they would make the top ten). I missed Norway (I had them fourteenth - I really liked this song, but didn't think it would get votes from the east), Israel (I had them eleventh, just two places below where they finished, and they had a killer draw - singing first after a break), and Azerbaijan (I had them seventeenth - I still don't get the appeal of this song).
No one came close to Verka Serduchka's record of getting points from all forty televoting countries last year (plus one of the two jury countries).
Dima Bilan's winning score of 6.48 points per country ranks as the second lowest winning score in history (well, at least since the 12-10-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 system began in 1975). Only Greece in 2005 managed to win with a lower score (6.05).
Final comments:
The U.K. did not deserve to finish tied for last this year.
Armenia (eight) picked up more twelve points than Russia (seven).
I never bought the hype for Portugal (and I feel embarrassed even putting them tenth now). She can sing great, but (ask Andy Abraham) some songs just can't be pushed to the top by anyone.
Ukraine looked MUCH better in the final. If she had given that performance in the semi-final, I would have moved her up a couple of notches (to second). I thought Ukraine would win after they had performed.
How on earth did France score the same number of points as Sweden? I never watched a French rehearsal, but if I had, I would have put it last (even behind Germany). It sounded terrible.
Greece (my pick to win) was never going to win, but she sounded off at the start of the song, which probably cost them second place.
Spain did not look good on a big stage (I wish I had watched that rehearsal, too). They might have done better with just the same two women they had in the video.
I still don't "Believe" in Russia's song. This is the worst of the three (counting the 2005 National Final) Eurovision songs Dima has had. Russia will no doubt put on a first rate show (and spend whatever it takes to do so), but I would rather go just about anywhere else than Moscow (I have been there a half-dozen times before, and Moscow has a lot of negatives for visitors).
Second semi-final comments:
Get rid of the jury pick. Macedonia deserved to qualify more than Sweden did (it scored more points). Macedonia finished tenth (and Bulgaria eleventh) in the televote, with Sweden twelfth.
How did Croatia finish fourth and Turkey seventh in the semi-final? They finished right where I expected them to in the final (I predicted Turkey sixth and Croatia twenty-third - they finished seventh and twenty-first respectively).
Bulgaria did manage to pick up votes from fifteen of the other twenty-one countries (and finish eleventh with fifty-six points). Macedonia got sixty-four points from just nine countries.
The biggest oops - many people (including myself) had Hungary as a qualifier. They finished dead last with six points.
First semi-final comments:
Neither Estonia (which finished eighteenth) nor Ireland (which finished fifteenth) came close to qualifying.
The one I missed - I picked Slovenia to qualify (which finished eleventh), instead of Finland (which finished eighth).
First semi-final - Finland eighth, Bosnia and Herzegovina ninth. Final - Bosnia and Herzegovina tenth, Finland twenty-second.
The Netherlands truly has no friends, finishing forty-five points behind ninth place. I think if it had made the final, it still would have beat most of the songs from the second semi-final there.
Russia finished only third in the semi-final (behind Greece, which won, and Armenia). That reminded me of 2004, the other time one country (Ukraine) lost to another (Serbia and Montenegro) in a semi-final, then went on to win the whole thing.
If you are really a geeky girl, I hope you enjoy the numbers. :)
Some extra thoughts for you:
Iceland actually finished third among western televoters (much higher than I would have predicted), but only got six points from the east. I am a big believer in letting countries send whatever they want (if it bombs like Estonia or Ireland, tough), and maybe some countries would rather show off their culture than win, but people choosing a song like Iceland's (which I didn't like, but it seems that a lot of people did) should know that it will not get votes in the east. Fair? Maybe not, but just the reality at the present time.
On to the analysis:
Just like last year, I have divided the countries into "western" and "eastern." I use only geography for the classification, but (conveniently), the countries that most people complain about getting put in the east (Cyprus, Greece, Israel, Turkey) fit well there because they VOTE like other eastern European countries, even if they have more in common (in general) with the west.
I have (again) excluded Andorra and Albania, and this year San Marino, because I believe they used back-up juries to award their points. If anyone knows otherwise, please let me know, and I will update the numbers.
The fifteen western televoting countries: Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom.
The twenty-five eastern televoting countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovenia, Turkey, and Ukraine.
First, let's take a look at how each area voted (ordered by the average number of points received from other countries).
West
NO 5.36 01
TK 4.27 02
IS 4.14 03
GR 3.93 04
UA 3.73 05
AM 3.67 06
LV 3.47 07
BA 3.40 08=
RU 3.40 08=
PT 3.36 10
RS 3.33 11
DK 3.00 12
SE 2.57 13
IL 1.93 14
ES 1.86 15
FR 1.57 16
RO 1.57 17
FI 1.29 18
PL 0.93 19
AZ 0.67 20
UK 0.57 21
AL 0.53 22=
HR 0.53 22=
GE 0.40 24
DE 0.14 25
East
RU 8.75 01
UA 6.67 02
AM 5.58 03
GR 5.29 04
AZ 4.79 05
RS 4.38 06
NO 3.68 07
IL 3.38 08
GE 3.21 09
TK 2.50 10
BA 2.46 11
AL 1.76 12
HR 1.50 13
LV 1.21 14
FR 0.880 15
RO 0.875 16
DK 0.64 17=
ES 0.64 17=
FI 0.52 19
DE 0.48 20
SE 0.32 21
PT 0.28 22
IS 0.24 23
UK 0.00 24=
PL 0.00 24=
Well, some things certainly stand out from these numbers.
First of all, just having the western countries vote would have led to a very exciting contest with less than fifteen points between second and eleventh (second place Turkey had sixty-four points in total and eleventh place Serbia had fifty).
Norway won the western televote, and still finished a respectable seventh in the east. The second highest scoring song from western Europe in the east was France (fifteenth).
Turkey finished second in the west (like last year, but they averaged 6.94 in the west last year), but only tenth in the east.
Iceland finished third in the western televote, but only twenty-third in the east, getting only six points there (from Israel and Latvia).
Ukraine finished only fifth in the west (third last year behind Serbia and Turkey), but a very strong second in the east.
Armenia finished sixth in the west but third in the east (scoring a higher average in the east than any country did in the west). I wonder how much better they could have done with a late draw, especially since they beat Russia in their semi-final.
Latvia finished seventh in the west and fourteenth in the east (with twenty-two of Latvia's fifty-two points in the west coming from Ireland and United Kingdom).
Bosnia and Herzegovina finished better in the west (8th/9th) than in the east (eleventh).
Russia won the eastern televote averaging a massive 8.75 points per country. The west had Russia 8th/9th (eighth last year) with an average of 3.40 points (3.13 last year). I (incorrectly) thought Russia would need more points from the west to win, but the east gave them 210 points with Ukraine second at 160, and Armenia third at 134. Try making up a difference like that with only fifteen countries. Russia's overall score (6.48) was the second lowest winning score ever (only Greece in 2005 won with a lower score - an amazingly low 6.05).
Portugal finished in the top ten among western televoters. They picked up only seven points in the east, finishing twenty-second there.
Last year, Sweden finished fifth in the west, and got shut out in the east. This year, the gap is closer (thirteenth west, twenty-first east), but they finished eighteenth overall again.
Israel picked up some points where I didn't expect them to, actually scoring better in the east (ninth) than the west (fourteenth). They sang first after a break, and certainly would have done very will with a good draw.
Spain didn't gain much from the west (fifteenth versus 17th/18th in the east).
Finland finished eighteenth in the west and nineteenth in the east, which combined to put them in twenty-second overall (so much for the effect of the metal fans).
Azerbaijan finished twentieth in the west, and all the way up in fifth place in the east, with the second greatest point difference after Russia.
Albania and Croatia finished tied for 22nd/23rd in the west (with a total of eight points). They obviously did better in the east, but hardly enough to complain about (Albania twelfth and Croatia thirteenth).
On the other hand, Georgia finished twenty-fourth (second last) in the west, but their ninth place finish among easter voters left them just shy of the top ten overall.
Finally, we can run a few statistical tests on the score differences. The first column contains the result when subtracting average western points from average eastern points, and the second column contains the probability (as a percentage) that this difference occured by chance (as opposed to people voting different in the east as opposed to the west). The lower the number the more likely that people in the east did not vote the same way as people in the west for that song (more correctly, that the scores for that country from the east did not come from the same distribution as the scores for that country from the west).
RU +5.35 0.002%
AZ +4.13 0.02%
UA +2.93 2.00%
GE +2.81 0.06%
IL +1.44 9.68%
SE -2.25 5.18%
LV -2.26 7.27%
DK -2.36 6.52%
PT -3.08 0.93%
IS -3.90 0.35%
Obviously one or two years does not make a trend, but at the moment, I see the possibility of seven "semi-permanent" members of the top ten (meaning that they will finish in the top ten even with a mediocre song, though not with a very weak one) - Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Greece, Russia, Serbia, Turkey, and Ukraine. Let's look at the positions these countries have finished in the past three years (two years for Serbia):
08 07 06
04 08 08 Armenia
10 11 03 Bosnia and Herzegovina
03 07 09 Greece
01 03 02 Russia
06 01 NA Serbia
07 04 11 Turkey
02 02 07 Ukraine
A couple of eleventh place finishes, but everything else in the top ten. I predicted all of these would again finish in the top ten this year, and while I got all of those right, I had no luck at all guessing the other three top ten finishers (Norway, Azerbaijan, and Israel this year).
Yes, these countries have sent some good songs recently. But you can't convince me that United Kingdom would have finished seventh if it (instead of Greece) had sent Sarbel with Yassou Maria in 2007, for example.
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