Semifinal 2 Reactions and Final Predictions

It's finally time - in about 6 hours we will have a new winner of the Eurovision song contest.


Some late reactions to the 2nd semifinal:

1. Semifinal 1 was better - the opposite of last year.
2. My prediction was 9/10, with Norway instead of Poland. The actual result makes sense. Michal had better connection with the audience.
3. Ukraine and Georgia looked phenomenal on stage. 
4. Hovi was either sweaty or had a lot of strobing going on.
5. I'm disappointed that Bulgaria hid their backing singers. It really could have used backing dancers.
6. The opening number was so Melodifestivalen. Is this their typical humor without the international language barrier?
7. I will miss Kaliopi in the final.
8. So happy Denmark can't get through anymore with their super MOR entries.
9. No Nordic countries except Sweden in the final - conspiracy alert!

Now, take a peek in my foggy and cracked crystal ball for results from tonight:

1. Russia will win, at least the televote. Its semifinal performance has the most Youtube views by a margin of over a million views. It's at the top of the betting, even with Australia's late surge. And it's not doing too badly in the iTunes and Spotify charts. Australia and Sweden may be tipped because they're more contemporary, but after the last two years' televoting results, it seems televoters still have different standards for Eurovision songs than "regular" pop music. If "Rise Like a Phoenix" and "Grande Amore" can win the televote with retro sounds, "You Are The Only One" can win while sounding very Eurovision.
2. We are headed for a 2008 result with Russia, Ukraine, and Armenia in the top five.  Actually, all of the finalists now have better songs than they had in 2008, except Sweden and the Czech Republic.
3. Sweden and Australia to round out the top five. 
4. France will end up in the bottom half of the top ten. He was highly favorited to win before rehearsals started, but his performance lacks spectacle and is not lighting up Youtube. Still, it's doing well enough outside of the fan circles that it will not bomb. 
5. To conclude this season's greatest catfight, the Netherlands will place higher than Israel. 
6. Poland will be top 10 in the televote. I rated the song low, but it's hugely popular on Youtube. Their semifinal performance has more views than Armenia.
7. Croatia to place 11th-15th. My heart wants a top 10, and they are 7th in the Youtube views, so who knows.

Best of luck to everyone competing today!