Final Predictions

So last night I got 8 out of 10, with Belarus and Slovenia (good job to both) wrong.

It's really hard to predict a Eurovision winner this year. There aren't any real standout favorites this year. I know, that's what people say every year, but some of those years (like 2011) it's true. Consider that was the year where a big pre-contest favorite (France) had a mediocre performance and did as well in the final vote, where the home voters and juries had different favorites. It seems like this will be one of those years.

One of the surprises of the semifinal was the Netherlands, Their performance just oozes charisma, and it has the best staging. All of the acts are really well produced this year. Thinking back to 2009, many of the songs were messy and "Is It True" really stood out for its polished sound and look. Or back to 2010 when "Me and My Guitar" suddenly became a contender. They're the new hot favorite that came out of nowhere, but I don't think they'll do better than Yohanna and Tom - which is to say they may well have won their semis but they probably won't win the final. No matter what, all the recap blogs on Sunday will be titled "Calm After the Storm."

The other surprise was Austria. What could have been seen as a joke and a possible non-qualifier is now the hot favorite on iTunes and it's popular outside of fan circles if the "eurovision" tag on Tumblr is representative of anything. It might be a little too divisive to go all the way, but it overall it will probably do better with the televote than with the jury.

Meanwhile, the hot favorites of Armenia, Hungary, and Norway put out good performances that fell a little short of expectations. Armenia can't be ruled out entirely because it's doing so well on iTunes. Sweden met expectations and is still a contender.

The United Kingdom seems to be a hot favorite too but I can't see it winning. Doing well maybe, because the hyped entries did well over the past two shows, but if someone wants to vote for a "message" song they have other options.

Italy was my pre-contest favorite but from what rehearsals I've seen, hoping for a mid-table result is least likely to end in tears.

The dialogue has been very West-heavy apart from Armenia and discounts the typical contenders of Azerbaijan, Russia, and Ukraine. Russia had one of the top three performances of their semi. It will be very interesting to see who gives them votes, for obvious reasons. For those reasons, a win seems extremely unlikely. Remember when it was assumed that Russia benefited from political voting? Azerbaijan and Ukraine, last year's first and second runners-up, have a lot of polish but not quite as memorable performances as those. Never bet against those two making the top ten in the absence of a disaster on stage.

Uptempo songs are also missing from the victory conversation. In a ballad-heavy year, there has to be at least one uptempo song in the top 3. Right now it seems to be Greece due to its iTunes popularity and it being Greece. Poland is massively popular on YouTube, but what makes it popular to look at might be its downfall when aiming for the top.

I would personally rather see a country that's never won before (Armenia or Hungary) or that hasn't won in decades (Austria or Netherlands) rather than a country that won recently (Norway or Sweden). Despite my initial dislike of the song and its umemorability, I would like to see the Netherlands win simply for the surprise.


In the interest of humiliation, here's a top 10 prediction:
ARMENIA AUSTRIA AZERBAIJAN GREECE HUNGARY
NORWAY NETHERLANDS SWEDEN UKRAINE UNITED KINGDOM

Good luck to all the performers and here's to a good show!