Semifinal 1 Reactions and Semifinal 2 Predictions
The results of the first semifinal weren't really that much of a surprise. I got 8 out of 10 right: I put Belgium instead of Albania and Switzerland instead of Hungary, and really only the second is somewhat surprising.
I won't be able to post tomorrow after the dress rehearsals, so here are my predictions now for the second semifinal qualifiers:
CROATIA
ESTONIA
LITHUANIA
NORWAY
SERBIA
SLOVAKIA
SLOVENIA
SWEDEN
TURKEY
UKRAINE
I was debating putting Georgia in instead of one of those songs since they have a good qualification record, but they have the lowest number of YouTube views out of all the songs in the semifinal, plus it's hard to see juries going for it. I would love for Bulgaria and FYR Macedonia to qualify for the final but I'm not sure how likely it is.
posted by Goggle @ 8:54 PM
2 Comments:
Slovakia, eh? Let me just politely say that is not a consensus choice. :)
This semifinal seems much harder, and I will be quite happy if I do as well predicting as I did with the first semifinal.
*DESIRED* outcome:
01 Serbia
02 Netherlands
03 Belarus
04 Croatia
05 Slovenia
06 Bosnia and Herzegovina
07 Macedonia
08 Bulgaria
09 Lithuania
10 Portugal
11 Malta
12 Estonia
13 Norway
14 Ukriane
15 Turkey
16 Georgia
17 Slovakia
18 Sweden
*PREDICTED* outcome:
01 Serbia
02 Sweden
03 Slovenia
04 Ukraine
05 Turkey
06 Norway
07 Bosnia and Herzegovina
08 Macedonia
09 Croatia
10 Lithuania
11 Georgia
12 Netherlands
13 Estonia
14 Belarus
15 Malta
16 Bulgaria
17 Portugal
18 Slovakia
Once again, it seems that the songs most expected to do well got stuffed into the second half of the draw. Let's take a look at the "sure" qualifiers (a consensus from other web sites):
SF1
06 Russia
07 Iceland
08 Cyprus
14 Romania
15 Denmark
16 Greece
23 Ireland
26 Moldova
SF2
11 Estonia
17 Sweden
18 Turkey
24 Serbia
25 Ukraine
That's nine out of thirteen "sure" qualifiers in the second half, so once again we will see the second half of the draw dominate the top ten. In fact, there might only be two songs from the first half of the draw (Russia and Italy) to make the top ten.
First guess at top ten (performance order)
Likely:
Russia
Italy
Romania
Greece (they finished third in the televote last year, and I expect their even larger diaspora to come through again this year)
Sweden
Turkey (don't deserve it, but another country with diaspora everywhere)
Ireland (barely - I might take this one out)
Serbia
Ukraine (diaspora vote again)
That leaves exactly one spot for another country. I see one of the following as most likely:
Iceland
Azerbaijan
Spain
Germany
Moldova
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